Week 2 of the NFL season is here and we still don’t have much information to go off of for making bets — but it’s football so let’s throw some money on it anyways. For Week 2, I like to stay away from two extremely well-coached teams (Seahawks vs Patriots) and two unpredictable teams (Bengals vs Browns). Keep your head on a swivel for possible trap games such as the Packers vs Lions. I still favor the Pack in this one, but keep in mind there is a chance that they are already looking past the Lions to their next game, a much harder matchup against the Saints. Let’s get into this week’s picks — I’ll be tracking my record throughout the season, each week giving you 2–3 picks that I really like as well as an upset pick.
#1 — San Francisco 49ers vs. the New York Jets
Spread: 49ers -6.5 (-110)
Take your free money with this one all the way to the bank because I don’t see a universe in which the Jets don’t get destroyed in every aspect of this football game. The defense boasted by the 49ers is one of the NFL’s best, and last season they were the top-ranked scoring defense with an impressive 15.3 pts per game.
What does this mean for Sam Darnold and one of the worst offensive lines in the league? (I say one of because the Eagles hold that crown easily after their abysmal performance last Sunday.)
It means that Darnold is going to have about 2.5 seconds to decide who to throw to before Bosa & co. arrive in his lap, which will most likely lead to 1 or 2 interceptions. The data supports what your gut should tell you: the Jets are the worst football team in the league this year and the 49ers are returning from a solid Superbowl performance. You do the math.
#2 — Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Spread: Bills -5.5 (-110)
There’s a common theme you’ll notice amongst my picks: I favor teams with an extremely good defense when they’re against a garbage-tier offense. Now, I will say this — just like I said in my last article, I think Miami has a lot of great things going on and many bright spots in their future, but not with Fitzmagic at the helm. It would be a huge upset if they won this game against the Bills rock-solid defense.
Fitzpatrick threw 3 picks against the Patriots, and the Bills aren’t looking to make it any easier on him. Plus, Miami’s run game is non-existent. Josh Allen looked like a stud in his 2020 opener (with the exception of those two fumbles) and looked as though the Bills offense was really starting to find a groove. The Dolphins, meanwhile, had a real issue controlling Cam Newton because of his ability to run, an area that Josh Allen also excels in with a solid 15 rush attempts in his first game of the season. If the Bills don’t make a bunch of stupid mistakes (cough 2 fumbles and allow big plays on defense) this one is an absolute wrap.
#3 — Minnesota Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts
Line: Vikings (+145)
I did not put the spread for this one and the reason why is very simple: the Vikings are going to win this game, so you just don’t need the +3 points as it will be a waste of money. This game is my moneymaker for this week. +145 for the Vikings to win against the Colts, who just lost to the Jags? This is how actually you make some money on a line instead of hoping the miracle prop bet hits. (We have all been there with phone timers out and hoping that the national anthem just goes on forever)
The Vikings’ defense, especially their interior line, was a revolving door against the Packers’ offense. This week, however, they’re not up against Aaron Rodgers. Phillip “I Throw Picks” Rivers is at it again, and I just don’t think the Colts lackluster offense will be able to keep up with the Vikings. Kirk looked good in game one, and I expect they’ll ride that momentum into this game for the upset on the road.
#4 — The Upset of the Week — New York Giants vs. Chicago Bears
Spread: Giants +5.5 (-110)
The Bears got a much-needed victory last week, though their win was less about them playing well and more about the Lions and the hands — or the lack thereof — of D’Andre Swift.
Danny Dimes, meanwhile, looked great in a tough loss against the Steelers, despite a few costly interceptions. Due to the difference in defensive lines (and lack of TJ Watt), Saquon Barkley is poised to have a much easier time running against the Bears then he did against the Steel Curtain. If the Giants can get the run game going, it will allow Daniel Jones to have some time to throw off play-action because the defense won’t be able to pin their ears back. I have more faith in a pool noodle sinking then I do in Mitch Trubisky having another game without a pick. The Lions really threw that game away and I hope that Daniel Jones & co. don’t let me down!
Check-in with me again on Sunday to see my reaction to this weeks’ games and what hot takes I can conjure up after only 2 weeks of football.